by Professor Emeritus Philip
Stott
1. Climate always
changes, gradually, catastrophically, and unpredictably. It would be
especially newsworthy if climate stopped changing;
2. Climate change is governed by millions of factors (variables), from
the swish of a butterfly's wing, through volcanic eruptions, landscape
alterations, natural fluctuations in greenhouse gases, changes in
oceanic currents and salinity, variations in the Earth's orbit and
axis, sunspot cycles, to dust and meteors;
3. Much
of the debate is based on associations (correlations) between extremely
short-run data sets, often collected and averaged in unhelpful ways.
Correlations tell us nothing about processes;
4.
Carbon dioxide is often taken as a proxy for all the other greenhouse
gases. This is not acceptable, especially as the models are largely
unable to cope with the most important greenhouse gas of all, water
vapor;
5. Our climate models come nowhere near to
being able to predict climate change. The current direction of change
remains unproven, with balloon and corrected satellite measurements,
along with some high-latitude ground measurements, still indicating
cooling, not warming. It is also possible that any warming signature is
really reflecting only the processes of global urbanization.
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