by Dennis Avery
from the Wall Street Journal
Gerber recently announced that henceforth
its baby foods will be free from genetically modified crops and will be
When I joined the U.S. Department of Agriculture in 1959, the world feared a billion Third World people would die in famines. Then came the Green Revolution, and Norman Borlaug was awarded the 1970 Nobel Peace Prize for giving most of humanity its first real food security. Now we're ready to turn our backs on both food security and wildland conservation to eliminate food risks we can't even find. Thanks to the Green Revolution, the only famines in recent decades have
been those caused by governmental policies such as Mao Tse-tung's "Great Leap
Forward" in China and civil wars in Africa. Increased food security is a major reason
why the world's population is now projected to stabilize at 8.5 billion in 2035, instead
of spiraling upward. We've fed the Third World so well that young couples now believe
their children will live to maturity, and they stop after two or three babies instead of
six or 16.
The second-biggest achievement of the Green Revolution is saving wildlands with higher yields. We're currently feeding more than twice as many people as lived in 1950, and doing it from essentially the same 37% of the planet's land area that we farmed in 1950. Higher crop yields have saved more than 15 million square miles of wildlife habitat from being plowed for low-yield traditional farming. That's equal to the total land area of the U.S., Europe and South America. We got those higher yields with hybrid seeds, irrigation, chemical fertilizer and pesticides. The first impact of a global mandate for organic farming would be the
plow-down of five million to 10 million square miles of wildlife habitat, much of it in
the densely populated tropics, which have perhaps 100 times as many wild species per
square mile as the U.S. or Europe.
There is no vegetarian trend to ease the world's impending agricultural
burden. Instead, higher incomes are driving the biggest surge of meat and milk consumption
the Third World has ever seen. To save the current wildlands despite the larger, more
affluent population in the next century, we will have to triple the yields on the land
we're already farming. We will probably have to triple the use of pesticides as well
(particularly of herbicides, which help cut soil erosion with no-plow, low-erosion farming
systems.) We will also need more biotech breakthroughs like the new high- yielding crops
for acidic tropic soils recently pioneered in Mexico.
Do pesticide residues cause cancer? We've added 30 years to our lifespans in the 20th century, eight of them since we started spraying pesticides widely. Cancer experts say our real cancer risks are smoking, too much fat, too few fruits and vegetables and the genetic cancer tendencies inherited from our own families. After billions of dollars spent trying, not one pesticide- residue cancer victim has been found. Methyl parathion is unquestionably a deadly chemical if you walk into the cloud of gas just sprayed on a field of crops. But it effectively kills the bugs that love to eat growing fruits and vegetables; and plentiful fruits and vegetables prevent cancer. The quarter of our population that eats the most produce has half the cancer risk of the quarter that eats the least. And it makes no difference whether these fruits and vegetables were grown using pesticides.
For decades, methyl parathion and the other organophospates were rated "safe for use" with a safety factor 100 times the "no effect" levels in the rat tests. In 1996, however, the Food Quality Protection Act allowed the EPA to plug in a 1,000-fold safety factor. This, despite no evidence that any consumers had been hurt by pesticides. Will we now be safer?
We know for certain that we can save millions of square miles of wildlands by using pesticides, fertilizers, biotechnology and the other tools of our expanding scientific knowledge for high-yield agriculture and forestry. Humanity in the 21st century can banish hunger, end nutritional deficits in its children and save virtually all of the remaining wildlands in the process. But there are only two ways to do it: Either murder four billion people, or use chemicals and biotechnology to triple the yields on the land we're already farming. Dennis Avery is director of the Center for Global Food Issues of the Hudson Institute and the author of "Saving the Planet with Pesticides and Plastic: The Environmental Triumph of High-Yield Farming" (Hudson Institute, 1995). |
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9 Sep 1999